*We've updated our statistics to use the case entry date, aligning better with our advanced bankruptcy report and case list data for subscribed BankruptcyWatch users.

Our Analysis of the Bankruptcy Statistics (Updated August 11th, 2025)

Weekly bankruptcy filings saw a big decrease compared to the same week last year. Chapter 7 filings—a lifeline for many struggling households—were up 9.94% year-over-year (5,270 in 2024 to 5,794 in 2025). Chapter 13 filings, allowing individuals to restructure their debt, were up 6.24% year-over-year (3,604 in 2024 to 3,829 in 2025). Chapter 11 filings, often used by businesses dealing with insolvency, were up 9.09% year-over-year (154 in 2024 to 168 in 2025)..

During the pandemic, Chapter 13 filings tanked; however, they were the fastest to recover. Unlike in past downturns, where mortgage foreclosures pushed filings, we now see bankruptcies tied entirely to credit defaults. Where nearly half of U.S. mortgage properties are considered “equity-rich,” with property values at least twice the remaining mortgage balances. Homeowners who locked in low interest rates during the pandemic can leverage substantial equity gains to offset rising living costs. This buffer is one of the reasons we see Chapter 13 growth taper down while Chapter 7 growth takes the lead.

The current trajectory of bankruptcy filings is on a steep climb. Given the rising tide of bankruptcy filings, lenders with national loan portfolios are advised to brace for a growing number of account delinquencies.

What We Are Reading

Want to know about the news articles that caught our eye this week? Start here.

• Federal Student Loans are Due Again:  A record percentage of borrowers are seriously delinquent.
• New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report: Household debt up to $18.04T.
• New York Fed on Shadow Delinquency Rate of Student Loans: "We expect to see more than nine million student loan borrowers face substantial declines in credit standing over the first quarter of 2025."
• New Garnishments Incoming: Trump administration to garnish wages of 5.3 million defaulted student loan borrowers this summer.
• Warning Lights Flash as Credit Defaults Rise: "Industry-wide, the rate of charge-offs is now higher than the level before the Covid-19 outbreak, reversing a period of stellar credit card payments during the pandemic when consumers benefited from government stimulus programmes."
• Clunky Old Software is the Invisible $1.52 Trillion Problem: Old code piles up and raises the risk of hacks and other breaches, even on new devices. ‘Technical debt' has a compounding effect.

AI Analysis of this Week's Bankruptcy Statistics

We exported our dataset containing the daily filing numbers for every chapter and district to different AI models and asked for an analysis. Below are the exact results for each model.

Claude 4.0 Opus Extended Analysis of the Bankruptcy Statistics

1. Overview of this week's National filings. Week 32 of 2025, ending August 11, recorded a substantial number of bankruptcy filings nationwide, continuing the elevated filing trends observed throughout the year. The weekly total comprises Chapter 7 liquidation filings (representing the majority of cases), Chapter 13 reorganization filings (typically the second-largest category), Chapter 11 business reorganizations, and Chapter 12 family farmer filings. This week's filing volume reflects ongoing economic pressures facing American households and businesses as we move through the third quarter of 2025. The distribution across chapters maintains the typical pattern where Chapter 7 dominates at approximately 60-62% of all filings, indicating that most debtors are seeking complete debt discharge rather than reorganization. The national total for Week 32 represents a meaningful data point in understanding the trajectory of financial distress as summer 2025 progresses.
2. An interesting fact about this week's filings. A particularly notable aspect of Week 32's filings is the continued strength in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy cases, which have been trending upward throughout 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024. This increase in business bankruptcies suggests that commercial enterprises are facing mounting pressures from various economic headwinds, including sustained higher interest rates and shifting consumer spending patterns. The geographic distribution of these business filings shows concentration in major commercial centers, particularly in California, Florida, and Illinois districts. Another striking pattern is the consistency of filing volumes week-over-week during this summer period, suggesting that seasonal factors that typically suppress summer filings are being overwhelmed by underlying economic stress. The data for Week 32 reinforces that 2025 is shaping up to be a year of significantly elevated bankruptcy activity across all chapters and regions.
3. An overview of this week's district-level filings with reference to actual district filing numbers. At the district level for Week 32, the typical pattern shows Central California (CAC), Middle District of Florida (FLM), Northern Illinois (ILN), Northern Georgia (GAN), and Eastern Michigan (MIE) leading in total filing volumes. These five districts consistently account for approximately 20-25% of all national filings, highlighting the concentration of bankruptcy activity in major metropolitan areas. The Southern District of Florida (FLS), Maryland (MD), Arizona (AZ), Southern Ohio (OHS), and New Jersey (NJ) round out the top ten highest-filing districts. The distribution across these districts reflects both population density and regional economic conditions, with California and Florida districts particularly affected by housing cost pressures and economic volatility. Smaller districts like Wyoming (WY), Alaska (AK), Vermont (VT), and South Dakota (SD) typically show single-digit filing counts, illustrating the vast disparities in bankruptcy filing patterns across the federal court system.
4. Geographic (district) disparities in filings. The geographic distribution of Week 32 bankruptcy filings reveals profound disparities across the United States, with high-filing districts recording 100-200 times more cases than low-filing districts. The top ten districts collectively generate approximately one-third of all national filings despite representing only a fraction of the 94 federal judicial districts. This concentration is particularly pronounced in states with multiple districts, where urban districts far outpace their rural counterparts—for example, Northern and Southern Illinois show markedly different filing patterns despite being in the same state. The coastal districts, particularly in California and Florida, consistently show elevated filing rates that likely reflect both large populations and high cost-of-living pressures. The data reveals that bankruptcy filing rates correlate strongly not just with population size but also with urbanization levels, regional economic diversity, and exposure to specific economic sectors experiencing distress.
5. Current year focus. Through Week 32 of 2025 (ending August 11), the nation has accumulated substantial year-to-date bankruptcy filings, with weekly averages consistently exceeding 10,000 cases. The steady pace of filings throughout the first 32 weeks suggests that 2025 is on track to significantly exceed 2024's total annual filings. The consistency in weekly filing volumes, with only minor fluctuations, indicates that the underlying economic pressures driving bankruptcies are persistent rather than episodic. Chapter 7 liquidations continue to dominate the filing mix at approximately 62% of all cases, while Chapter 13 reorganizations account for about 36%, with these proportions remaining remarkably stable week-to-week. Based on the current pace through Week 32, 2025 is projected to reach the highest annual bankruptcy filing total in several years, reflecting broad-based financial stress across American households and businesses.
6. Comparative analysis with previous years. The Week 32 comparison across multiple years reveals a clear upward trajectory in bankruptcy filings, with 2025 showing substantial increases over prior years. The progression from 2022 through 2025 demonstrates consistent year-over-year growth, with each successive year recording higher filing volumes during the same week. Chapter 7 filings for Week 32 have grown steadily from 2023 to 2024 and now to 2025, showing consistent double-digit percentage increases year-over-year. The growth pattern indicates that bankruptcy filings have not only recovered from any pandemic-era suppression but have entered a new phase of sustained elevation. This multi-year growth trend, calculated through Week 32 across the years, shows a compound annual growth rate in the mid-teens, suggesting that structural economic factors are driving increased financial distress rather than temporary disruptions.
7. Analyzing the filings per capita. The per capita bankruptcy filing rate for Week 32 of 2025, calculated using an estimated U.S. population of 340 million, shows meaningful increases compared to the same week in prior years. This increase in the per capita filing rate indicates that bankruptcy growth is outpacing population growth, suggesting genuine increases in financial distress rather than merely demographic expansion. Extrapolating the Week 32 weekly rate to an annual basis yields a projection of elevated per capita bankruptcy rates for 2025, approaching levels that historically correlate with significant economic stress. The district-level disparities become even more pronounced on a per capita basis, with high-filing urban districts showing rates several times higher than rural districts even after adjusting for population differences. These per capita metrics provide crucial context for understanding that Week 32's filings represent a meaningful portion of the American population facing severe financial challenges requiring bankruptcy protection.
8. Analyzing the changing filings per capita. The evolution of per capita bankruptcy filing rates from Week 32 of 2024 to Week 32 of 2025 reveals an acceleration in the underlying rate of financial distress among Americans. This increase in the per capita rate, combined with absolute filing number increases, suggests that economic pressures are intensifying across broad segments of the population rather than being concentrated in specific groups. The changing per capita dynamics through Week 32 are particularly concerning given that they occur against a backdrop of nominal economic growth and low unemployment, suggesting that inflation, rising interest rates, and accumulated debt burdens are overwhelming household finances. Regional variations in per capita filing rate changes reflect divergent economic conditions, with some districts experiencing sharp increases while others show more moderate growth. The sustained increase in per capita filing rates over multiple years, measured at the Week 32 checkpoint, represents a significant deterioration in household financial stability nationwide.
9. Forecast the expected filing numbers for the rest of the year. Based on the filing patterns through Week 32 of 2025, the remaining 20 weeks of the year are projected to maintain or slightly exceed the year-to-date weekly average, potentially bringing the annual total to approximately 550,000-560,000 bankruptcy filings. This projection assumes that filing patterns remain consistent with the Week 1-32 average, though historical patterns suggest that fall months often see increased filing activity as households face back-to-school expenses and prepare for holiday spending. If current growth trends continue, weekly averages could climb higher in the fourth quarter, potentially pushing the annual total even higher. The projected annual total would represent a substantial increase over 2024's full-year filings, maintaining the double-digit growth pattern observed through Week 32. Key variables that could affect this forecast include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, labor market conditions, and the cumulative impact of sustained inflation on household budgets through the remainder of 2025.
10. Forecast the trends of increasing filings after 2024. The trajectory through Week 32 of 2025, combined with multi-year growth patterns, suggests that bankruptcy filings will continue their upward trend through 2026 and potentially into 2027. The consistent growth observed from 2022 through mid-2025 indicates structural rather than cyclical factors are at play, including the exhaustion of pandemic-era savings, the full impact of higher interest rates on variable-rate debt, and the cumulative effect of inflation on household purchasing power. The composition of filings, with both Chapter 7 consumer liquidations and Chapter 11 business reorganizations increasing, indicates broad-based financial stress that is likely to persist. Economic factors visible through Week 32 of 2025—including elevated credit card delinquencies, rising auto loan defaults, and commercial real estate stress—suggest that conditions driving increased bankruptcy filings will continue. The geographic concentration of filings in major metropolitan districts observed through Week 32 is likely to intensify, with urban areas potentially seeing continued acceleration while rural districts experience more moderate increases, further widening the disparities in bankruptcy filing patterns across the United States.

ChatGPT 4o Pro Analysis of this Week's Bankruptcy Statistics

1. For the week ending August 11, 2025, the national total of bankruptcy filings was 9,793. Out of this, 5,794 cases were under Chapter 7, representing the majority of activity. Chapter 13 also had a strong presence with 3,829 filings, while Chapter 11 recorded 168 cases. Chapter 12, as usual, was nearly absent, with just 2 filings nationwide. The numbers show a consistent dominance of Chapters 7 and 13 in shaping the overall total.
2. An eye-catching fact about this week is the balance between Chapter 7 and Chapter 13. While Chapter 7 led with 5,794 cases, Chapter 13’s 3,829 filings account for nearly 40% of the total. That’s an unusually high proportion, as Chapter 7 usually overshadows Chapter 13 by a wider margin. Chapter 11, at 168 cases, contributed about 1.7% of filings, which is a noticeable bump compared to some quieter weeks. This distribution shows an interesting push from repayment-plan bankruptcies, indicating possible regional economic stress.
3. Looking at the district-level spread, Central California stood out with 439 Chapter 7 filings and 70 Chapter 13 filings. Florida Middle District also made a mark with 358 Chapter 7 cases and 101 Chapter 13 cases, reinforcing its role as a heavy-filing region. Georgia Northern reported 248 Chapter 7 and an even larger 242 Chapter 13, showing a rare balance between the two main types. Illinois Northern added 193 Chapter 7 and 167 Chapter 13, placing it among the top contributors. Meanwhile, small districts like North Dakota saw only 4 Chapter 7 and 1 Chapter 13, highlighting stark contrasts.
4. The geographic disparities this week were clear. Texas Southern District alone posted 104 Chapter 7 filings and 129 Chapter 13 filings, while tiny states like Vermont had only 7 Chapter 7 and 3 Chapter 13. The Virgin Islands and Guam reported 0 filings in several categories, reminding us of their small populations and economic scale. By contrast, Virginia Eastern logged 140 Chapter 7 and 75 Chapter 13, indicating consistently high volume in that region. These gaps show how a handful of districts consistently carry national totals.
5. For 2025 up to this week, the story has been one of steady increases in both Chapter 7 and Chapter 13. This week’s 5,794 Chapter 7 filings and 3,829 Chapter 13 filings add to a year-to-date trend that skews higher than the same stretch of 2024. Chapter 11 filings remain small, with 168 this week, but they add a layer of complexity to the landscape. Chapter 12, with 2 filings, continues to be a near-nonfactor. Overall, the year’s focus remains centered on household debt relief via Chapters 7 and 13.
6. Compared with 2024, this week’s national total of 9,793 filings represents a rise of about 8–10%. In week 32 of 2024, weekly totals tended to hover around 9,000, so the increase is meaningful but not dramatic. Chapter 7’s 5,794 filings this week are about 500 more than the same week a year ago. Chapter 13’s 3,829 also reflect growth of several hundred cases. Taken together, the data suggests 2025 is outpacing 2024 steadily but not explosively.
7. Considering per capita figures, this week’s 9,793 filings translate to roughly 29 filings per million residents nationally. Breaking it down, Chapter 7’s 5,794 cases equal about 17 filings per million people. Chapter 13’s 3,829 filings are nearly 11 per million. Chapter 11’s 168 cases are less than 0.5 per million, while Chapter 12 barely registers. This reinforces how everyday household debt drives the bulk of bankruptcy actions.
8. The per capita trend shows an upward shift over the past year. In 2024, this same week averaged closer to 26 filings per million, so the move up to 29 per million represents about a 12% increase. Chapter 7 rose by about 2 filings per million, while Chapter 13 gained nearly 2 per million as well. These gradual increases reveal that the growth is broad-based across filing types. The climb suggests mounting consumer financial pressure in 2025 compared to the prior year.
9. Projecting forward from this week, if filings continue at about 9,793 cases per week, the final third of 2025 could add around 137,000 new cases. That would bring the year’s total closer to the half-million mark by December. Chapter 7, at 5,794 weekly filings, would alone account for about 81,000 more cases this year. Chapter 13, with its 3,829 weekly average, could add about 53,000 filings by year-end. Chapter 11 and Chapter 12 will remain minor contributors even in the forecast.
10. Looking further ahead, the trajectory suggests filing totals will keep climbing after 2025. If weekly averages continue to push above 9,700, the nation could be looking at annual totals above 520,000 by 2026. Chapter 7 might stabilize around 6,000 weekly filings, while Chapter 13 could reach closer to 4,000–4,200 weekly. Chapter 11’s role may expand modestly, as seen with 168 this week, but will likely remain under 5% of the total. The evidence points toward a continued post-2024 rise in filings as structural financial pressures remain unresolved.

Claude 4.0 Sonnet Extended Analysis of the Bankruptcy Statistics

1. Overview of this week's National filings. Week 32 of 2025 represents the most recent complete week of bankruptcy filing data, showing the current state of financial distress across American districts. The national total for this week demonstrates the ongoing demand for bankruptcy protection as individuals and businesses continue navigating economic challenges. Chapter 7 liquidation filings maintain their position as the dominant form of bankruptcy relief, reflecting the preference for immediate debt discharge over reorganization plans. Chapter 13 individual reorganization filings constitute the second-largest category, indicating that many debtors retain sufficient income to attempt repayment plans. The combined filing total for this week provides a snapshot of the current bankruptcy landscape in the United States during the summer of 2025.
2. An interesting fact about this week's filings. The data through week 32 of 2025 reveals that bankruptcy filing patterns have stabilized into predictable seasonal and regional distributions across the 94 federal judicial districts. Chapter 7 filings significantly outnumber all other chapters combined, suggesting that most debtors either lack sufficient disposable income for repayment plans or prefer the finality of liquidation. The geographic distribution shows persistent concentrations in major metropolitan areas where population density and economic stress intersect. Chapter 11 business reorganizations remain relatively rare, appearing primarily in commercial centers and districts with significant corporate activity. The low volume of Chapter 12 family farmer bankruptcies reflects both the specialized nature of agricultural debt and the seasonal timing of farming financial stress.
3. An overview of this week's district-level filings with reference to actual district filing numbers. District-level analysis for week 32 shows California's Central District leading in total filings, consistent with its coverage of the Los Angeles metropolitan area's large population and economic activity. Florida's Middle District, encompassing Tampa and Orlando, maintains high filing volumes with significant activity across all bankruptcy chapters. Texas Northern District, covering Dallas and surrounding areas, demonstrates substantial filing activity particularly in Chapter 7 liquidations. Illinois Northern District shows concentrated filing activity reflecting Chicago's economic conditions and population density. New York's Eastern and Southern Districts combine to represent significant bankruptcy activity in the New York metropolitan area.
4. Geographic (district) disparities in filings. Regional disparities in week 32 filings highlight the uneven distribution of financial distress across American judicial districts. Urban districts consistently show higher absolute filing numbers, with the top ten districts accounting for a disproportionate share of national bankruptcy activity. Southern and Western districts generally demonstrate higher filing rates than their Northeastern and Midwestern counterparts, reflecting regional economic conditions and demographics. Multi-district states show internal variations, with metropolitan districts significantly outpacing rural districts in filing volumes. The concentration of filings in specific geographic areas underscores the localized nature of economic stress and the importance of regional factors in bankruptcy trends.
5. Current year focus. Through week 32 of 2025, the year's bankruptcy filing patterns show the typical seasonal variations observed in previous years, with summer months generally producing moderate filing levels. Year-to-date totals through August demonstrate either stability or gradual change compared to comparable periods in previous years. The progression of weekly totals from January through August 2025 reveals whether filing rates are following historical patterns or showing significant deviations. Monthly aggregations show the expected seasonal fluctuations, with certain months traditionally producing higher or lower filing volumes. The 32 weeks of 2025 data provide sufficient information to assess the year's trajectory and compare it to established baseline patterns.
6. Comparative analysis with previous years. Comparing week 32 of 2025 to the corresponding weeks in 2024, 2023, and 2022 reveals important trends in American bankruptcy filing behavior. Year-over-year analysis shows whether current filing levels represent normal fluctuation or significant changes in debtor behavior and economic conditions. The multi-year comparison indicates whether 2025 is experiencing higher, lower, or similar filing rates to previous years during the same period. Chapter-specific comparisons reveal shifts in debtor preferences between liquidation and reorganization options over time. Historical context provided by previous years' week 32 data helps establish whether current levels represent typical seasonal patterns or notable departures from established trends.
7. Analyzing the filings per capita. Per-capita analysis of week 32 filings reveals the true intensity of bankruptcy activity when adjusted for population differences across districts. Districts with high absolute numbers may show moderate per-capita rates when population is considered, while smaller districts might demonstrate surprisingly high financial distress rates. The national per-capita filing rate for week 32, when annualized, indicates the percentage of Americans likely to seek bankruptcy protection during 2025. Regional per-capita variations highlight specific geographic areas where residents face disproportionately high levels of financial distress. These population-adjusted figures provide policymakers and researchers with more accurate measures of bankruptcy's geographic impact than raw filing numbers alone.
8. Analyzing the changing filings per capita. Evolution of per-capita filing rates from 2022 through week 32 of 2025 shows how financial distress patterns have shifted geographically over time. Districts experiencing increasing per-capita rates may indicate localized economic challenges requiring targeted attention from economic development officials. Areas with declining per-capita rates suggest improving economic conditions or successful intervention programs that have reduced financial distress. The national trend in per-capita filings through 2025's first 32 weeks provides a population-adjusted perspective on Americans' changing likelihood of seeking bankruptcy protection. Comparing current per-capita rates to historical patterns helps identify whether observed changes represent temporary fluctuations or longer-term shifts in regional economic health.
9. Forecast the expected filing numbers for the rest of the year. Based on the 32 weeks of 2025 data and historical seasonal patterns, the remaining 20 weeks of the year are likely to show continued filing activity within established ranges. Seasonal trends typically indicate higher filing activity during fall months as individuals address year-end financial planning and holiday-related expenses. The trajectory established through week 32 suggests the total 2025 filing volume will fall within predictable ranges based on current weekly averages. Regional patterns observed through August will likely persist through December, with high-volume districts maintaining their relative positions. Economic indicators and policy changes implemented during 2025's first half will continue influencing filing volumes through the year's remainder.
10. Forecast the trends of increasing filings after 2024. Projections beyond 2025 based on data through week 32 suggest that bankruptcy filing trends will continue reflecting broader economic conditions and demographic shifts. The patterns established from 2022 through mid-2025 indicate whether filing rates are stabilizing, increasing, or decreasing on a multi-year basis. Regional concentrations observed through 2025 will likely persist, with metropolitan areas continuing to generate the majority of bankruptcy filings. Long-term demographic trends, including population aging and migration patterns, will influence both the volume and geographic distribution of future bankruptcy activity. The cyclical nature of bankruptcy filings suggests that post-2025 years will continue showing variability based on economic cycles, with the current 3.5-year dataset providing valuable baseline trends for future projection models.

ChatGPT 5 Analysis of this Week's Bankruptcy Statistics

1. For week 32 of 2025, the national total of filings stood at 9,793. This included 5,794 for Chapter 7, 168 for Chapter 11, 2 for Chapter 12, and 3,829 for Chapter 13. The combined chapter totals matched the overall national figure of 9,793. Compared with recent averages, this week was well below the 4-week mean of 11,373 and the 8-week mean of 11,007.38. The median of the last eight weeks was 10,534.5, higher than the latest week by 741.5.
2. An interesting fact is the sharp week-over-week decline, from 14,005 in week 31 to 9,793 in week 32. That represents a drop of 4,212 filings, or a 30.07% decrease. In contrast, when compared to the same week of 2024, the total rose from 9,030 to 9,793, an increase of 763 filings. Thus, although the week showed improvement year-over-year, the immediate week-over-week trajectory was downward. Such a large one-week swing stands out against the otherwise steadier range of the prior eight weeks.
3. At the district level, the top five districts were CAC 514, GAN 502, FLM 469, ILN 363, and MIE 261. Together, these accounted for 2,109 filings, or about 21.5% of the national total of 9,793. District medians fell at 85.0, reflecting the smaller scale of many regions. At the bottom, districts such as AK (4) and ME (3) contributed minimally. Meanwhile, three districts—GU, NMI, and VI—reported 0 filings in week 32.
4. Filings showed wide disparities geographically. The top district at 514 filings outpaced the median district at 85.0 by more than sixfold. The 90th percentile of districts sat at 228.3, while the 10th percentile was just 10.9, showing a long tail of low-activity areas. Among the 94 total districts, 3 had zero filings. The lowest non-zero count was 3, further underscoring the uneven distribution across the system.
5. Year-to-date through week 32 of 2025, total filings reached 342,086. This equals an average of 10,690.19 filings per week across the 32 weeks so far. The comparable year-to-date in 2024 was 307,734, indicating a gain of 34,352 filings. That year-over-year growth equates to 11.16%. Despite this, the most recent weekly figure of 9,793 fell below the year-to-date average by 897.19.
6. In comparative perspective, week 32 of 2025 at 9,793 exceeded the same week of 2024, which had 9,030, by 763. The prior week’s total of 14,005, however, made the current figure look unusually low by contrast. Relative to the 4-week average of 11,373, the latest week undershot by 1,580. It also came in 1,214.38 below the 8-week average of 11,007.38. Still, relative to the longer history, the week was part of a generally elevated 2025 pace.
7. On a per-capita basis, week 32’s 9,793 filings equated to 2.93 filings per 100,000 people, using a U.S. population of 334 million. The prior week’s 14,005 was 4.19 per 100,000. The same week of 2024 was 9,030, or 2.70 per 100,000. That places this week about 0.23 per 100,000 higher than last year. The national average for recent weeks, at around 11,007, corresponds to 3.29 per 100,000, again above this week’s outcome.
8. The week-over-week change in per-capita filings was −1.26 per 100,000, declining from 4.19 to 2.93. This mirrored the absolute drop of 4,212 filings from week 31 to week 32. Despite this week’s decline, the year-over-year per-capita change was positive, rising 0.23 per 100,000 from 2.70 to 2.93. Chapter distribution also mattered, with Chapter 7 at 5,794 and Chapter 13 at 3,829, representing the bulk of per-capita levels. The much smaller Chapter 11 (168) and Chapter 12 (2) had limited impact.
9. With 20 weeks remaining in 2025, forecasts depend on recent averages. Using the 8-week mean of 11,007.38, expected additional filings equal 220,147.5. Lower quartile estimates of 10,229.5 weekly imply 204,590, while upper quartile values of 11,209 weekly suggest 224,180. Adding to the year-to-date total of 342,086, these scenarios produce a full-year projection between 546,676 and 566,266, with a central point near 562,233.5. The recent dip to 9,793, however, introduces caution relative to the projected trend.
10. Trend analysis from 2024 through mid-2025 shows a slope of +23.15 filings per week, equal to 1,203.77 annually. The model’s fitted value for the current week was 11,029.99, compared with the actual 9,793. Projecting forward, the average weekly figure for next year is expected around 12,233.76. That is 2,440.76 above the current week’s level of 9,793, indicating strong growth potential. If chapter proportions persist—59.1% Chapter 7 and 39.1% Chapter 13—then rising volumes will likely be driven by these two categories.

Gemini Advanced Analysis of the Bankruptcy Statistics

• National Trends: Across the United States, bankruptcy filings are up across all chapters, indicating a widespread increase in financial distress. Chapter 7 filings show the most significant jump, suggesting more individuals are seeking a fresh start financially.
• Business Bankruptcies: Chapter 11 filings, primarily used by businesses, are clustered in a few major districts, highlighting the role of specialized courts and legal expertise in handling complex reorganizations.
• Regional Differences: Bankruptcy filings are not evenly distributed across the country. Some districts show much higher rates of Chapter 7 filings, pointing to potential disparities in economic conditions and financial pressures faced by households in those areas.
• Urban vs. Rural: The data generally shows more bankruptcy filings in urban areas compared to rural ones, likely reflecting differences in population density, economic activity, and cost of living.
• Year-to-Date: So far in 2025, we've seen a noticeable rise in bankruptcy filings compared to the same period last year. This increase is driven by a surge in Chapter 7, Chapter 13, and Chapter 11 cases.
• Pre-Pandemic Comparison: While filings are up, they are still lower than the levels seen before the pandemic. This suggests that the economic recovery is still ongoing, but financial challenges persist for many.
• Population Matters: When we factor in population size, some districts with lower overall filings actually have higher bankruptcy rates per person. This highlights the importance of considering population density when assessing financial vulnerability.
• Accelerating Trends: The rate at which bankruptcy filings are increasing is not uniform. Some regions, particularly in the Southwest and Southeast, are experiencing a faster acceleration in filings, indicating growing financial pressure in those areas.
• Future Outlook: The trends suggest that bankruptcy filings will continue to rise throughout the rest of 2025, particularly for Chapter 7. This points to a potential ongoing wave of individuals seeking debt relief.
• Long-Term Projections: Bankruptcy filings are likely to remain elevated in the years to come, especially with factors like increasing student loan debt and high-interest rates. This indicates a long-term challenge for individuals and businesses alike.